CHANGING RURAL DEMOGRAPHICS
An Interview with Kenneth M. Johnson, Ph.D
Kenneth M. Johnson is a Professor of Sociology and Senior Demographer with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a Ph.D. demographer and sociologist specializing in U.S. demographic trends and the author of the Carsey report Demographic Trends in Rural and Small Town America. Dr. Johnson has done extensive research on population redistribution and demographic trends in the United States. He has authored a book and more than 150 articles, reports and papers on U.S. demographic trends.
Interviewed by Amy Seif on 3/09/07.
Amy Seif: You describe a changing rural America in your Carsey Institute report. Is the stereotype of rural America dominated by agriculture outdated?
Kenneth Johnson: One of my first tasks in talking with people about rural America is to make sure they understand that rural and agriculture are not the same thing. Agriculture is still important to the economy in hundreds of rural counties, but only 6.5 percent of the nonmetropolitan labor force is engaged in farming. Manufacturing employs more than 12 percent of the rural labor force. In fact, a much larger percentage of the rural labor force is employed in manufacturing than is the case in urban America.
AS: What population changes are shaping rural America?
KJ: More than 50 million people live in the 75 percent of America that is rural. Rural America grew very rapidly during the 1970s and again during the early 1990s. In the late 1990s, growth slowed, but it picked up again after 2001. Much of this rural growth was fueled by migration. People moved to rural areas from urban areas and from other countries. These in-migrants bring with them different set of skills and attitudes that can contribute to the development of many rural areas.
AS: Where is population growth occurring?
KJ: One important point to remember about rural growth is that it has been selective. That is,while some areas of rural America have grown rapidly, other areas have only grown slowly or have actually lost population. The areas experiencing the most growth are the recreational, high amenity and retirement counties. Counties just beyond the urban edge are also growing rapidly as population sprawls outward from the urban core. In contrast, many farming and mining counties are experiencing substantial population loss.
AS: Who is moving to rural places? Is rural America becoming more diverse?
KJ: Rural America is less racially and ethnically diverse than urban areas. Traditionally most people coming to rural America were domestic migrants moving from some other area of the US. Domestic migrants remain the primary source of rural growth. However, there has also been an increasing flow of Hispanic immigrants to some rural areas. The number of blacks residing in rural areas is growing modestly as well, though most of this growth is from natural increase (the excess of births over deaths).
AS: What kinds of amenities are drawing newcomers to rural communities?
KJ: Rural areas are receiving a substantial number of amenity migrants and their numbers are likely to grow as the Baby Boom begins to retire. They are attracted by a number of factors including the natural beauty of the area, temperate climates, lakes and oceans and built amenities like golf courses, ski resorts and snowmobiling trails.
AS: What about those rural places that are losing population? Who is leaving and what are the implications?
KJ: The most likely rural county to lose population is a small, farming community, located in a remote area of the Great Plains. Some of these counties had 15,000 people in them in 1900, but fewer than 5,000 remain today. Young adults are the most likely to leave. Many of these rural counties have been losing young adults for decades. Our research suggests that many farming communities lose at least half of their young adults through out migration. This is a tremendous loss of human capital for these communities. Having lost so many young adults for so long, some of these communities no longer produce enough children to offset deaths to the older residents. So, communities with long term losses face a number of policy challenges and only comprehensive policy initiatives that try to address the whole range of issues these communities face can hope to have any chance of helping these communities.
Read more in Demographic Trends in Rural and Small Town America by Kenneth M. Johnson.