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Snapshots of Social Change

September 21, 2007: Views From the Heartland

This spring, Carsey Institute researchers conducted telephone interviews with more than 6,500 residents in 15 rural counties across the United States. The surveys asked how people viewed the present realities and future challenges of their rural communities, and how their own lives and families fit into that community picture. Our counties covered a wide range of circumstances across rural America today, from booming growth to gentle decline. Six geographical regions were represented: Rocky Mountain, Pacific Northwest, Northeast, Midwest, Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta.

Our first report from the Community and Environment in Rural America (CERA) project introduced the surveys and drew some comparisons between the six regions. We compared what issues people viewed as most important to their community; what things might influence their decisions to keep living there or move away; and whether they thought that local resources should be used to create jobs or conserved for the future. On these topics and others, there were notable differences in opinions across the six regions. Midwestern respondents, for instance, cited family ties as one of the most important reasons to keep living where they were. Rocky Mountain respondents, in contrast, rated natural beauty and recreational opportunities as more important. From the rural Midwest, urban sprawl seemed the least important local environmental issue; in the Rocky Mountains, it appeared most important (http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/snapshot_viewsfromruralamerica.html).

That first report looked broadly across all of the regions. With this second report, focusing on the Midwest, we begin a series of closer looks at individual regions and how each one stands out. About 1,000 randomly selected adults living in four Kansas counties who shared their opinions with interviewers make up our Midwestern sample. As in other CERA regions nationwide, the cluster of counties in Kansas — Jewell, Republic, Osborne and Smith — had been carefully chosen to meet criteria for our rural-oriented research.

So how do the views of rural Kansas residents differ from those of other rural regions? In What’s the Matter with Kansas? (2004), author Thomas Frank describes his home state as politically exceptional, a place with historically populist or moderate traditions that, over the past two decades, had experienced politics dominated by social-issue conservatism. The most recent elections show signs of a moderate resurgence, including the 2006 re-election of Governor Kathleen Sebelius, as well as Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda to Congress. Our CERA survey did not focus on political issues, but it did ask the following question:

GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or what?
Strong Democrat
Not very strong Democrat
Independent, but closer to Democrats
Independent — closer to neither
Independent, but closer to Republicans
Not very strong Republican
Strong Republican

Rural places nationwide were more likely to favor Republican George W. Bush in the last presidential election (see Rural Voting in the 2004 Election, http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/documents/FS_ruralvote_06.pdf). Kansas followed this pattern, but even among the rural regions surveyed for CERA, the Kansas counties were distinctly more Republican. Figure 1 graphs the average party identification given by CERA respondents together with the actual vote percentage for Bush from that county in 2004. On both dimensions, the Kansas counties stand apart.

Figure 1: Average political party identification by survey respondents and countywide voting in the 2004 election for the 15 CERA counties.

Aside from politics, the surveys found other ways in which views from these four Kansas counties stood out from the other CERA regions. Reflecting the demographic makeup of their communities, our Kansas respondents tended to be older (Figure 2). Twenty-eight percent were age 65 or more, compared with 20 percent in our second-oldest region, the Pacific Northwest, or just 13 percent percent in the youngest, the Mississippi Delta. Conversely, the Kansas sample included fewer young adults than any other region — only 14 percent of the respondents were under 30 in Kansas, compared with 18 percent in the Northwest or 28 percent in the Delta. (Margins of error for the percentages given in this report are about 3 percent.)

Figure 2: Ages of survey respondents reflect the population age structures of the six CERA regions.

The lives of Kansas respondents appear relatively stable, in several respects. They had the highest percent currently married (75 percent) and the lowest percent never married (10 percent) or divorced (6 percent) of any region surveyed (Figure 3). They were also the most likely to own (90 percent) rather than rent (8 percent) their home (Figure 4).

Figure 3: Current marital status of survey respondents.

Figure 4: Percent who rent, own or have other living arrangements (such as staying with relatives).

Populations of the four Kansas counties have declined by about 10 percent over the past 15 years, according to Census estimates. As a result, home values are not high (Figure 5). Fifty-three percent of Kansas respondents reported that their homes were valued below $70,000, compared with less than 10 percent in the Rocky Mountains, Northwest or Northeast — where population and market conditions are different.

Figure 5: Reported values of homes.

The aging population and low home values of rural Kansas tell a story of out-migration by young adults. Kansas respondents were more likely than their counterparts elsewhere to report they had grown children who have moved out of their region (72 percent; see Figure 6). They were also less optimistic about the future of their communities. Our surveys asked: Based on what you see of the situation today, do you think that ten years from now, your community will be a better place to live, a worse place, or about the same?

Only 15 percent of the Kansas respondents thought their community would be a better place to live in ten years, compared with more than 30 percent in the Rocky Mountains, Northwest or Northeast (Figure 7). And yet, this lack of optimism did not mean the Kansans were more pessimistic. Only 23 percent of Kansas respondents thought their community would become a worse place, a proportion similar to other regions. Instead, they held an expectation of stability: 62 percent of Kansas respondents, far more than in other regions, thought their community would be about the same in ten years.

Figure 6: “Do you have any grown children, who lived in this area at one time, but have moved away either to a larger city or suburb, or to a different rural area?”

Figure 7: “Based on what you see of the situation today, do you think that ten years from now, your community will be a better place to live, a worse place, or about the same?”

One interesting question brought together these themes of youthful out-migration and the future: If your own teenage child, or the child of a close friend, asked you for advice, would you recommend that they should plan to stay in this town as an adult, or move away for opportunities somewhere else?

Majorities in each region said they would advise the teenager to move away for opportunities elsewhere. Kansas had the largest minority (36 percent), however, giving the opposite advice for the teenager to stay here (Figure 8). That view in part expresses the necessity of retaining young people, if communities are to survive. Moreover, it fits with the many good things that people saw in their home communities, including family connections and a high quality of life (http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/snapshot_viewsfromruralamerica.html). Kansas respondents also believed that people are willing to help their neighbors, trust and get along with each other, and can be counted on to work together to solve local problems (Figure 9). “Social capital” is a tangible asset in rural Kansas.

Figure 8: “If your own teenage child, or the child of a close friend, asked you for advice, would you recommend that they should plan to stay in this town as an adult, or move away for opportunities somewhere else?”

Figure 9: Percent agreeing that people around here are willing to help their neighbors, generally trust one another and get along, could be counted on to work together to address a local problem, or that local government has the ability to deal effectively with problems.

This social capital in large part reflects shared values. A majority of Kansas respondents (56 percent), more than in any other area, reported that they attended religious services at least once a week (Figure 10). Only a few (10 percent) said they never did so. Unlike respondents from Appalachia and the Delta, who also reported high rates of attendance, relatively few people from Kansas said they attended services more than once per week. In the high prevalence of once-a-week attendance, Kansas was unique.

Figure 10: “How often do you attend religious services apart from occasional weddings, baptisms, or funerals ... never ... a few times a year ... once or twice a month ... once a week ... or more than once a week?”

Although religion-linked issues of social conservatism, such as opposition to abortion or to teaching evolution, have sometimes made headlines about Kansas, national political controversies in 2007 have centered on different issues involving the war in Iraq. This topic has particular importance to rural Americans because soldiers and casualties have come disproportionately from rural parts of the country. More than two-thirds of all CERA respondents said they knew someone from their region who was currently serving in Afghanistan or Iraq. The proportion was highest (80 percent) among Kansans, (Figure 11), indicating a particularly strong regional commitment to these conflicts.

Figure 11: “Do you know anyone from this area who is serving or has served in the military in Iraq or Afghanistan?”

From these survey results, a portrait emerges of four rural Kansas counties that are coping with changes driven by large social and economic forces. Globalization and economic change play a role in the population decline that has become a notable feature of these places. Despite this decline, people express a strong sense of cohesiveness, indicative of social capital based on shared values including religion. Many wish that fewer young adults moved away, although from observations and their own families’ experiences, they know trends are running in the opposite direction. Otherwise, most people’s personal circumstances tend to be relatively stable, and they expect that the future will be neither better nor worse. The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are far away from the heartland, but these conflicts too have come home, personalized by their sons and daughters who are serving. In broad terms, rural Kansas shares such struggles with other rural American places. In the details described here, however, Kansas makes its own way.

About the Author

Snapshots of Social Change is written by Lawrence Hamilton, a Senior Fellow with the Carsey Institute and Professor of Sociology at the University of New Hampshire (http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch).