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SNAPSHOTS OF SOCIAL CHANGE

 

June 1, 2007:

SURVEY RESULTS: VIEWS FROM THE NORTHERN FOREST

Rural America is changing dramatically under pressures from globalization, demographic shifts, new migration patterns and environmental transformation. Some attractive rural areas are growing as baby boomers move there to retire, and as “footloose professionals” choose to settle in smaller communities. Other rural places, long dependent on resources such as agriculture or timber, have a history of booms and busts. Lately, some of these have seen new immigrants arriving to fill low-skill jobs in resource industries that once supported the middle class. Finally, there are some chronically poor rural communities where decades of underinvestment have left a legacy of deep poverty and problematic community institutions. Rural America consists of several types of places, heading into the future along much different paths.

To learn more about how rural Americans view the changes now underway in their communities, Carsey Institute researchers recently began a study of Community and Environment in Rural America (CERA). The first stage of this project involves telephone surveys of more than 6,000 people living in rural counties of eight states. Their counties were chosen to represent a wide variety of circumstances, from boom to decline. This unique comparative project has been supported by grants from the Neil and Louise Tillotson Fund of the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation, Kellogg and Ford Foundations.

Most of the CERA surveys were still in progress at the time of this writing, but we have results from two Northeastern counties: Coos County in northern New Hampshire, and Oxford County in western Maine. In this “Snapshot of Social Change,” we take a first look at some results from these two Northern Forest regions.

Which of the following do you consider to be IMPORTANT PROBLEMS facing your community today?

Figure 1 graphs the responses from about 1500 residents of Coos County, New Hampshire and Oxford County, Maine. Job opportunities were by far the most-cited, considered important problems by more than 80% of the respondents in both counties. Drugs, affordable housing, school quality and poverty also received many votes, with variations in priority between the two counties.

Figure 1: “What do you consider to be important problems facing your community today?” (Percentages)

Recreation opportunities, on the other hand, were least likely to seem important problems — the forests, mountains, rivers and lakes of these northern regions provide residents with a wealth of possibilities. Other low-importance problems were violent and property crime, and too-rapid development (both around 30%), further emphasizing the relatively remote and undeveloped character of these places. As expected, the responses from these two adjacent counties are generally similar. We should see much sharper contrasts when they are compared with rural areas on different development paths.

I'm going to read a list of environmental issues that might be problems in some rural places. With regard to the place where YOU live, for each issue I'd like to know whether you think this has had no effect, had minor effects, or had major effects ON YOUR FAMILY OR COMMUNITY OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS?

Figure 2 shows how people responded to this question about recent impacts of environmental issues on their own family and community. Unsurprisingly, the loss of forestry jobs was most salient in both Coos and Oxford, which historically have depended on timber-related industries that are now in decline. More surprisingly, global warming was often perceived as having major impacts as well, particularly in Coos County. Skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing and other cold-season activities have economic and recreational importance in this region. In recent years, the noticeable trend towards warmer and less snowy winters has become a cause for concern (http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch/warming_winters_abstract.htm).

Figure 2: “Have these environmental issues had no effect, minor effects, or major effects on your family and community over the past 5 years?” (Mean responses)

Water quality and supply issues appeared less important to residents of these water-rich counties. We might find expect to find similar rankings of environmental issues among residents of other northern forest regions in Washington and Oregon, but quite different ones from drier, more farm-oriented parts of Kansas or Colorado.

Do the following things seem ... not important ... somewhat important ... or ... very important to you, when you think about whether you will stay here or move away in the future?

The future of rural places depends critically on migration flows, including how communities retain or lose their mobile young adults. Figure 3 depicts answers to a question about which things seem important to respondents as they themselves consider whether or not to stay. One striking feature of this graphic is the complete agreement in rankings by Coos and Oxford residents. Quality of life is most often seen as very important, followed by natural beauty — two strengths of their region. The weaknesses are equally clear: education, housing and jobs, which might be better somewhere else, most likely in a more urban place.

Figure 3: “Do the following things seem not important, somewhat important, or very important to you, when you think about whether you will stay here or move away in the future?” (Mean responses)

Figure 3 suggests the unhappy tradeoff that many people face when thinking about whether to stay in a rural community or leave. Reasons for staying include a high quality of life, natural beauty, family and recreation. But for young adults in particular, education, housing and jobs tend to be more critical needs, and these might be sought somewhere else. Conversely, retirees or others who do not depend on the local economy for their income, already have education, and can afford decent housing, will often find the rural beauty and quality of life more compelling. These are, precisely, the motivations behind the shifting population makeup in amenity-rich rural areas like the two counties studied here.

Watch this space in the months ahead for further CERA results, including comparisons among the views of rural residents in Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oregon and Washington.

Author

Snapshots of Social Change is written by Lawrence Hamilton, a Senior Fellow with the Carsey Institute and Professor of Sociology at the University of New Hampshire (http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch).