SNAPSHOTS OF SOCIAL CHANGE OCTOBER 16, 2006:
MIGRATION AND POPULATION IN THE
RURAL SOUTH
U.S. population grew past the 300 million mark this month, driven by two forces: natural increase, or the excess of births over deaths; and net migration. Natural increase and migration have different effects in different parts of the country—some places are losing population, while others gain rapidly. In this report we look specifically at one region, the rural (non-metropolitan) South. The South’s population has doubled over the past 50 years, and if recent growth rates continue it will double again within the next 50.
Figure 1 shows changes in rural South population by ethnic group, based on the 1990 and 2000 Census. In the graph at left we see that the white population grew by 6%, from 14.9 to 15.7 million. The black population grew at a similar rate, 7%, from 3.6 to 3.8 million. The smaller Hispanic and other ethnicity populations grew much faster, 61% and 50% respectively.
Figure 1: Changes in population of the rural South, 1990 to 2000 Census.
Pie charts in Figure 1 show what percentage of the total growth for each ethnic group is due to net migration. Among blacks, there was net out-migration—more blacks moved out of the rural South than moved in. The slight overall increase in black population came entirely from natural growth. At the other extreme, about one-third (34%) of the total growth among Hispanics resulted from net in-migration. Net in-migration thus reinforced high natural growth to drive the rural South’s Hispanic population up 61%, from 800 thousand to 1.3 million in ten years.
Different growth patterns led to populations that differ in composition, as well. Figure 2 visualizes the 2000 populations as a set of population pyramids. Each horizontal bar represents a 5-year age group, starting with 0–4 year olds, (bottom), 5–9 (next up) and so forth, up to age 85+ (top bar). Width of the blue bars indicates the number of males, red bars the number of females (note the differently-scaled horizontal axes below each pyramid).
Figure 2: Age–sex pyramids showing the number of men (blue bars) and women (red bars) in each 5-year age group (0-4 years at bottom, 85+ years at top). Based on 2000 Census.
Among whites, the left pyramid in Figure 2, we see a wider bulge of middle-aged baby boomers, between about 35 and 55 years old. The base of this pyramid is narrower, because there are fewer children, teenagers, and young adults. Some young adults are leaving the rural South. Above age 70, more women survive, making the red bars wider than the blue.
A middle-aged bulge, and relative scarcity of young adults, is noticeable among the rural Southern blacks as well (second from left in Figure 2). This pyramid’s base (children) is wider, and the top (elders) narrower, indicating a population that is younger, overall, than the whites. The largest cohorts are teenage. Above age 65 there are notably fewer black men than women.
The Hispanic pyramid, third from left, looks different from either whites or blacks. Its wide base (many children) and narrow peak (few elders) are characteristic of a high-birth-rate, rapidly growing population. A second striking feature is the excess of working-age men, reflecting in-migration by Hispanic males seeking jobs.
The “other” ethnic category combines such diverse identities as Asian and Native Americans. The rightmost pyramid in Figure 2 likewise combines diverse features. The wide base and narrow peak reflect a high birth rate, although not so high as Hispanics. A narrow waist indicates fewer young adults. Instead of the Hispanic excess of working-age men (due to in-migration), the “other” category contains a slight excess of working-age women.
Median ages for males/females are listed above each pyramid in Figure 2. These ages confirm visual impressions of the white population as oldest, and Hispanic youngest overall. Median ages for males and females differ by 3 years or less within the white, Hispanic and other groups. A much larger 7-year difference exists between median ages for black males and females, suggesting a gender gap in life expectancy and perhaps out-migration.
Figure 3 graphs the sex ratios, or number of males per 100 females, for each 5-year age group. Among Hispanics, disproportionate in-migration by working-age men creates ratios of more than 150 men per 100 women in the 20–24 and 25–29 age groups. For all ethnicities, female longevity translates into increasingly female ratios above age 60. This trend is strongest among the black population, resulting in just 76 men per 100 women by age 65–69, and 58 men per 100 women by age 75–79.
Figure 3: Number of males per 100 females among rural South populations, by five-year age group (0–4 years, 5–9 years, etc.). Based on 2000 Census.
These graphs illustrate some ways in which patterns of births, deaths and migration shape the composition as well as the size of populations. The age/sex composition of Hispanic populations, shaped by strong inflows from birth rates and, secondarily, net in-migration (especially by men), appear most different from those of other rural South ethnic groups.
Author
Snapshots of Social Change is written by Lawrence Hamilton, a Senior Fellow with the Carsey Institute and Professor of Sociology at the University of New Hampshire ( http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch ).